I have long thought (and I think it isn't a hugely unpopular or unreasonable thought) that the GOP has a much better chance of retaining control of the Senate than the House in this fall's midterms. (By the way, I don't really think they're gonna lose the House just that the Democrats ha(d)ve a better chance at the House if they are going to win anything in November). Their chances in the Senate seem to be getting better, too.
One reason for this trend are the slipping poll numbers of Maria Cantwell in Washington. The latest Rasmussen poll has her leading Republican Mike McGavick 44% to 40%. And the race isn't simply tightening a little. The trends are all favoring Mr. McGavick. Cantwell's approval numbers are on a downward slide and her disapproval numbers have ticked up (the 2 don't always go hand in hand but in this case they do). McGavick, however, is more liked as he is more widely known. His approval rating is up and he has actually gained in the poll as Cantwell has slipped which again doesn't always happen (in evidence see NJ polls where Menenedez rises and falls while Kean's numbers stay relatively stable).
A few weeks ago, Cantwell was an incumbent in a very blue state with approval ratings above 50% and was polling in the 50's in head-to-head match-ups with Mike McGavick. Now her support is fizzling just as her ooponent is on the ascent. The National Democrats will have to pour more resources into this seat pulling them from other competitive areas where they already need to capture 6 net seats to take control of the Senate. It appears Cantwell's Hillary-esque straddling on Iraq is winning her no support in her state. Those who support the war see McGavick as more of a hawk. Those who hate Bush and want to see us lose in Iraq, lump her in with Lieberman and Hillary and won't vote for her. They won't vote for McGavick either but if they voted for her in 2000 and stay home this time, it hurts her chances. In addition, one of her former staffers writes a scathing portrait of her as utterly unlikable and (not surprisingly for a US Senator) incredibly vain as well. Let's hope that vanity blinds her to her own problems with the electorate this year and gives Chuck Schumer a little additional heartburn for the next 4+ months.
BORU
UPDATE: Alexander McClure at Wizbang Politics notes that the Washington Senate Race looks to be a toss-up right now.
Matthew
She won by such a small margin last time that I would not be surprised by a Cantwell loss. Besides, I would think people in Washington are still smarting from the most recent governor's race where Christine Gregoir used some recounting hijinks learned from algore to ensure her victory.
Posted by: Matthew | 26 June 2006 at 05:21 PM