The Consortium

I Don't Buy Generic

Imagine, if you will, it is an election year and pollsters being pollsters keep asking voters a "generic congressional ballot" question.  Further imagine that through that entire year the Democrats retain a lead of anywhere from 1 - 19 points in the "generic" results.  Let's say it is the last weekend in October before said election and the "big time" polls all show the Democrats ahead:  Gallup by 1%, same over at Zogby, and Rasmussen has the Dems up by 6%.  Why, it wouldn't be unimaginable to believe the Democrats were in for some good news come election night.  However, that next Tuesday after the first Monday in November, the Democrats are stunned to learn they LOST four seats in the House.  How can that be?  They were favored for the entire year in the "generic congressional ballot" poll question and maintained that lead right up until election day?!?!  Well, those results aren't imagined - that's exactly what happened in 2004.  In June of that year the Dems were swooning over the 19 (!) point lead they enjoyed in the LA Times completely unbiased poll, but then come Election Day not so much with the swooning.  Perhaps, it is because we do not have parliametary elections where we vote for the party nationwide;  rather we have 435 seperate little elections where many factors - aside from the national "mood" - come into play.  Perhaps, it could even be that most polls are conducted by those withering dinosaurs known as newspapers who might just hold the slightest little bias toward one party over the other. 

Some conservatives - like the Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes - suggest you must add about 5 points to the GOP total in these "generic" polls to make them more accurate.  That may explain why in 1994, the Democrats held a 6% lead in most generic polls immediately before getting their clocks cleaned.  I think they are - 5 points added or not - pretty silly exercises that don't mean a whole helluva lot come Election Day.  I am not saying that this year the GOP will gain even more seats in the House.  However, I think the Democrats basing their House takeover on these numbers is foolhardy.  After all, their lead in this year's LA Times June "generic" poll was only 14 points - Ouch!

BORU

My Left Nutroots: Sour mood at Kos & Co.

Pessimism seems to be on the rise over at Osama and Hugo's favorite political blog, DailyKos.  The Kos himself is even predicting doom come November:

"See, that's why I don't think we're (the Democrats are) going to win back the House or Senate."

The comments following this latest lament by the lily-livered liberal lisper-in-chief are filled with the type of leftist gloom that puts a little spring in my step.  One of the first comments predicts Stabenow will ultimately lose her Senate seat despite her lead in the polls.  Further down (the 9th comment), asserts that the Democrats are going to lose on purpose because, "They are perfectly comfortable being a permanent minority."  That's good stuff;  I love me some crazies. 

And then they even start fighting among themselves - for a deranged minority within a minority who all hate the 2nd Amendment so much they are ever so adept at forming adorable little circular firing squands.  Ready....Aim......Victory come 11/07/06!

BORU

p.s. I remember in 2004, the week after the election I was in Isle-of-Palm, SC listening to the waves gently crash ashore as I watched C-SPAN's wall-to-wall coverage of Democrat hand-wringing after another defeat.  This summer they set themselves up in the expectations game by setting their hearts on recapturing the House and coming close in the Senate;  anything less will be easily spun into GOP victory.  Ah, I can't wait to watch Donna Brazille console a near catotonic E.J. Dionne this year!

UPDATE:  I did NOT see Matt's post on this same exact thing until after I published.  What can I say - Great Minds think alike!

Numbers, numbers, how I love numbers

The RealClearPolitics Presidential approval average sits at 40% right now.  Two things will help bump that slightly higher in the coming days - the 9/11 anniversary (and primetime speech by W) and falling gas prices (it's now $2.21/gallon here in Dayton, OH).  Then we must factor in the dirty little (not so) secret that the GOP faithful have known for quite some time:  modern pollsters over-sample Democrats.  Therefore, a 40% approval for GWB really translates to more of a 45-48% approval rating.

If the anniversary and falling gas prices give the president a bump of 3-5 more points and he holds it there for a few more weeks, election night is not going to be quite as rosy for the Dems as they had hoped and predicted just a month ago.  In fact, as races tighten up and things start looking a little better for the GOP, it reminds me of how much the Democrat Party is like the Red Sox or a virgin on prom night:  lookin good in the Spring but always shootin their wad too early.

BORU

Woman Power at Forbes.com

Forbes Magazine released its 100 most powerful women recently.  At the top of the list is the woman who has restored some sanity to German foreign policy, Angela Merkel, followed by secretary of state Condoleezza Rice. It was surprising to see just how many of the world's top corporations have women in the top positions and how many foreign countries have women in top leadership positions.  Equally surprising is the fact that the 26th most powerful woman in the world rose to her position of power bearing the unfortunate name Christine Poon.

-Matthew

Pants on Fire

In a DCCC press release disguised as a Washington Post news article that tries to explain away a Lieberman-Lamont distraction on the three vulnerable Republican House seats in Connecticutt, semi-famous Democrat pollster Celinda Lake flat out lies.  She doesn't finesse the numbers or spin 'em a little - she makes a claim completely out of whole cloth and presents it as factual evidence to back up her claim that CT voters are ticket-splitters.

Here's what she says:

"Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, said that in the last gubernatorial election, half the state's women voted for Republican Gov. M. Jodi Rell, then voted for the Democratic House candidate."

Only problem - Jodi Rell was not elected governor in 2002.  She's never been elected governor- she assumed the job after John Rowland - the guy who did actually win the 2002 election - got himself into legal hot water.  Celinda Lake is a fat liar (that is the truth - the woman is obese and now we know she makes shit up for a fact-checkerless rag).  I wonder if she takes the same approach to the "truth" when she is releasing the results of her so-called polls?

BORU

Running from Bush.....and into a wall

Since November of last year, I have been keeping an admittedly nerdy and obsessive journal of poll numbers in some of the most contested Senate and gubernatorial races.  Today, while looking over the Rasmussen poll for Minnesota's Senate race, I noticed a trend developing.  The MSM has spilled much ink on articles claiming that GOP candidates are afraid of Bush's low poll numbers so they are trying to distance themselves from him.  Then they go on to name pretty much the same usual suspects:  Steele in MD, Kennedy in MN, DeWine in OH and Chafee in RI.  Well, if you look at these fellas numbers since they have been declaring themselves "independent" thinkers who aren't tied to Bush or the GOP, they have all been falling.  Steele is now losing handily to Cardin and slightly to Mfume;  Kennedy's latest poll numbers have him 12 points behind Klobacher;  DeWine is losing to Sherrod Brown (who is awful, just awful so all blame for DeWine's loss will lie squarely on his own diminutive shoulders);  and Whitehouse is beating Chafee as well as more talk lately (in National Review and Washignton Post [yes, Post, not Times] among others) of Laffey actually beating Chaffee in the primary. 

Meanwhile, in two other contested races, the GOP candidates are touting their conservative credentials - and to their benefit.  Santorum is closing the gap against Casey;  and Corker has a lead over Ford in Tennessee.  I submit that GOP candidates do themselves harm by severing ties with Bush.  Meanwhile, Bush continues to raise money for all GOP candidates at an impressive clip - even the aforementioned ingrates. 

Well, after the November elections, one thing is for sure:  Bush will still be in office in Washington DC.  Can the same be said for DeWine and Chaffee?

BORU

Great Responsibility

At the same time that pundits and pontificators are prematurely predicting the GOP's demise in one or both of the houses of Congress this fall, the Democrats - the natural beneficiary of this electoral seesawing - are tipping their hand.  From John Murtha and his reckless comments about our fighting men and women to Harry Reid's letter to the President this week calling for all troops home by Christmas;  from the primary challenge to former vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman in Connecticutt to John Dingell's refusal to call Hezbollah a terrorist group;  from John Conyers veiled threats at impeachment to Nancy Pelosi's inablilty to string together a complete sentence (seriously, people - those of you who make fun of George W. Bush's at times strained delivery especially off the cuff, will then in all good conscience vote for this stammerer to be the next Speaker of the House??!!?!?).  As a party who backed the war, then split on its funding and have taken the side of the enemy every step of the way (Durbin's unconscionable rants on Gitmo;  Levin and Kennedy's bizarre obsession with waterboarding;  McDermott's Baghdad debacle on the eve of war), we know where the Democrat party stands.  Their elevation to power is the vindication of a policy of defeat.  They will retreat from Iraq.  They will not stand shoulder to shoulder with Israel in the face of international pressure from the anti-semetic, pro-dictator UN.  They will blink when faced with non-Muslim extremist threats like Venezuala's Hugo Chavez, North Korea's Kim Jong-Il, and the fluid and dynamic situation in a possibly Fidel-less Cuba.  They scoff at those of us who believe in American exceptionalism as simplistic, jingoistic rubes.  I am not questioning their patriotism so much as I am questioning their integrity, their strength, and their judgement. 

The GOP has done much to annoy and fracture its internal coalition.  However, if the only other choice is the modern Democrat Party then there is no worthy alternative.  We, who re-elected George W. Bush in 2004, must do what we can to elect Republicans this year.  Especially in the House - our GOP House of Representatives do not deserve to be punished because of the arrogance and elitism of their Senate counterparts.  And our President does not deserve to be impeached because John Conyers is the new chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.  Our country's purse strings do not deserve to be put into the hands of the likes of Murtha, Pelosi and McDermott.  Are they the ones you want deciding the amount alotted to our Armed Services and Border Patrol?  Are they the men and women you want deciding how much more in taxes you will have to pay???

It is an honor and duty to vote in this country.  This November it is also a responsibility.  It is our responsibility to keep our country's safety and economy in the more sane party's hands.  The other day, I again visited the Ronald W. Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in Simi Valley, California, and saw this quote of his from 1994 (the year Newt Gingrich led us to the majority we must this year protect):

It was leadership here at home that gave us strong American influence abroad, and the collapse of imperial Communism.  Great nations have responsibilty to lead, and we should always be cautious of those who would lower our profile, because they might just wind up lowering our flag."

We should all heed the warning of this great man.

BORU

One last thing.....

The Dispatch also justified counting more Democrat respondants than GOP because of the 'conventional wisdom' that the GOP base is disheartened and there will therefore be more Dems voting in November than Republicans.

I would just like to remind the Dispatch that about 26,000 more of those disheartened Republicans voted in the primary in Ohio this year than did their estatic Democrat counterparts.

And for those who say that was because Strickland faced only a nominal challenger, while Blackwell was in a contested primary with Petro, the Republican lead in voters was in all categories.  In the Attorney General's Race, about 100,000 more Republicans voted than did Democrats despite the Dems having a contested race and the GOP nominee having no real competition at all.

Ok - now I swear I am done.

BORU

Another Columbus Dispatch poll

Sunday, the illustrious Columbus Dispatch released another of its fantasy polls.  This one was in regard to both the Ohio Senate and gubernatorial races.  According to this stellar poll, Strickland is beating Blackwell in the latter race by 20 points!  Let's take a closer look:

First, we all know how I feel about the Dispatch polls after the Reform Ohio Now debacle last November.  They were wrong on all four issues - 3 of them by 20 or more points (more on that in the next post).

Second, when you look at the internals of the poll, you find that of the 1,654 respondants, only 202 come from the GOP-heavy Southwestern part of the state while 615 (!) come from the Democrat-heavy Northwestern part of the state.  While, I admit Cleveland has a larger population than Cincinnati, the suburbs in the NW have been in population decline for more than a decade while the suburbs that make up the corridor between Dayton and Cincinnati have had huge population explosions.  (i.e. Warren County is the fastest growing county in Ohio and one of the top 15 fastest growing counties in the entire country!)  So, the Cleveland area gets represented by a 3 to 1 margin over Cincinnati.....unfortunately, for the Dems and Mr. Strickland that kind of ratio will not hold up on election day.

Granted, I think Mr. Blackwell may be behind Mr. Strickland - but nowhere near by 20 points.  And if history holds with the Dispatch poll, if Mr. Strickland is purported to be up by 20 points (like RON Issue 2 was) then he's gonna lose by 28 - like RON Issue 2 did last November in the only real poll that matters - the one at the ballot box.

BORU

Larry Sabato: Dirty Drama Queen

University of Virginia political guru and hairpiece enthusiast Larry Sabato likes to make every election seem to be a breathless once-in-a-lifetime event.  All the 24-hr. news networks dust him off around Labor Day and trot him before the cameras to make outlandish 'predictions' about elections to boost ratings more than to boost voter turn-out.  So to that end, Larry tries to please the hands that feed and make it all as dramatic as possible.  As a man who makes most of his income from pimping electoral ditherings, one can easily see Larry's motivation:  drama sells.  Unfortunately, figuring out who is going to win modern day elections is about as mundane and undramatic as soccer (of which we are getting our full quadrennial reminder - thanks ESPN, television for athletic women - yawn).

Also, not so good for Larry is the fact that in trying to make elections seem more exciting, he has to stretch the truth about them (and their competitiveness) which also leaves him in the odd position of making predictions he knows are NOT gonna come true.  Take for example, his idiotic prediction for the 2004 presidential election.  While some prognosticators saw a Bush vicorty and others a Kerry victory (usually depending on their own party affiliation), only wild-eyed Sabato predicted a tie (because he was sure - just positive - Kerry would win FL;  uh-huh) in the electoral college and then onto the House for a final vote.  While I am sure that made the Bill O'Reillys and Soledad O'Briens of the world ooooh and aaaah at the sheer posibility, it was nothing more than a big pile of - to borrow a phrase from an Indiana grandpappy I once met - horsesh*t and applebutter.

Now Larry Sabato, through his "Crystal Ball" project at UVa - his words, not mine - is making predictions about this year's mid-terms.  His cleverly titled watch list of competitive races is the "Dirty Thirty" - ya get it?  Dirty rhymes with thirty....y'all see what he did there?  The only problem is that perhaps to the casual viewer, these 30 races may seem competitive (oh, and they are heavily Republican-held seats making the majority seem more vulnerable than the GOP is making itself all on its own with amnesty programs and spending that rivals the Hilton sisters) but when you take a closer look at the 30 races he has highlighted, they don't all compute.  If one were to sit down with that list, the Almanac of American Politics, google, and a little time, one could pull a full 19 seats out that are not as competitive as Lar would have us  believe. 

Sixteen of his vulnerable GOP seats (AZ-05, CT-04, CT-02, FL-22, IL-06, IN-08, KY-08, MN-06, NM-01, NC-11, OH-15, OH-18, PA-07, PA-08, TX-22, and VA-02) are not going to change hands this year.  And three of his vulnerable DEM seats (GA-08, GA-12, and WV-01) aren't flipping either.  When you take into consideration the power of incumbency (95+% of incumbents won re-election to the House in 2004), fund-raising totals for the 4th quarter of 2005 and the 1st quarter of this year, cash-on-hand (97%+ of candidates who spent more in their race won the race in 2004), and the difference in how the district voted in both the presidential and congressional elections of 2000 and 2004, none of these seats looks anywhere near as vulnerable as Larry Sabato would have you believe.  That leaves us with eleven.  Sadly no good dramatic words rhyme with eleven. 

These eleven are:  AZ-08, CO-07, IL-08, IN-09, IA-01, IA-03, LA-03, NY-24, OH-06, PA-06, and TX-17.  The DEMs need 15 net seats to capture the House for Speaker Pelosi to be more than a Cabernet-induced dream of Nancy's (which is probably another reason for those 30 seats so dirty - it's a lot easier seeing the DEMs take 15 seats out of 30, isn't it?)  So what if the DEMs win all 11?  Well, that's only a net gain of 6 seats because all the seats in italics are already DEM-held seats.  So they'll still have to cobble together nine (!) more pick-up victories in seats that even Dr. Sabato could not find dirty enough to include on his list.  Seems like a tall order.

BORU