Last night - apparently in an attempt to eradicate insomnia in the North American continent - Jay Leno had as his guest, Democratic Chairman Howard Dean. Dean was pushing his book, You Have the Power, (currently one of the top 287,000 bestsellers on Amazon) but also used the opportunity to push this new(ish) Dem talking point that the 2005 off year elections mean something about the 2006 midterm elections. Needless to say, the good Chairman did not allow things like logic, facts, or history to get in his way. As he has done repeatedly over the last few weeks, he claimed that the victories for the Democrat Party in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races forecasts America's dissatisfaction with George W. Bush culminating in the Dems taking back the US House and Senate next year.
Let's see. George Bush in November of 2005 had an approval rating hovering between 35 and 40 per cent. Democrats won the governorships in both New Jersey and Virginia. Now let's go back in time. In November of 2001, post-9/11, George W. Bush was enjoying an approval rating between 80 and 90 per cent. That year, Democrats won the governorships in both New Jersey and Virginia. Hmmmm..... So by the Dem logic, we can say that in 2001 Dems won those 2 governor's houses and the Republicans went on in 2002 to buck historical trends and actually gain seats in the midterm elections, then since 2005 was a repeat of 2001, we must assume that 2006 will be a repeat of 2002 and the GOP will once again buck history and further strengthen their majorities in both the House and Senate. It makes as much sense as what the good Chairman is saying.
The truth is that an off year election predicts almost nothing for the following year's midterm and realistic, mature adults know that a year is a political lifetime. One might even think that a Supreme Court nomination battle, better news out of Iraq, a tougher immigration policy, and some strategic spending cuts could reunify the national Republican majority by November of next year. And perhaps George W. Bush - in campaign mode - will once again be misunderestimated.
BORU
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